Nieman Lab.
Predictions for
Journalism, 2025.
We’ve covered 2024 as the fragmentation election, and media analysts mostly assume fragmentation will continue — more and more podcasts and Substacks and hyper-personalized TikTok accounts, and a weaker and weaker big media.
But as one of the great early internet CEOs once said, there are only two ways to go in media: bundling and unbundling. Just when you think one of those trends is in control, the pendulum starts swinging back. And there are big reasons both on the consumer and the corporate side to expect a wave of bundling.
The consumer push is obvious: The number of subscriptions you need to stay informed across entertainment and news is insane, unmanageable, and expensive. Consumers are overwhelmed by information and disoriented by complicated choices. At Semafor, part of our secret has been helping our readers navigate this chaotic, untrustworthy patchwork of paid and free content. I love many Substacks, read some of them, but can’t continue paying $200 a month combined. I’d expect an annual Substack subscription to hit in 2025 as individual publishers struggle to survive the coming wave of churning unsubscriptions.
Meanwhile, I want to watch shows on Max, Netflix, Prime, Hulu, and Apple TV+ — but it’s enraging to pay for all those subscriptions on top of YouTube TV for sports. Consumers are hitting a breaking point, and streamers are starting to respond with new bundles — but if they don’t move fast enough, they’ll find other players happy to bundle. Verizon, amazingly, offers a Netflix/Max package. If media companies can’t figure out how to be the bundlers, other layers of the ecosystem — telecoms, devices, social platforms — will.
Big corporations, meanwhile, are also driving toward consolidation. The Trump administration is more likely than Biden to wave through big media mergers — including another endlessly considered WarnerMedia sale. Elon Musk is building a new conservative/populist creator platform for the right on X. His only rival, Fox Corp. — cash rich, but desperate for a younger audience — will sweep up a generation of digital media led by The Daily Wire that needs its distribution to compete with X.
Ben Smith is editor-in-chief of Semafor.
We’ve covered 2024 as the fragmentation election, and media analysts mostly assume fragmentation will continue — more and more podcasts and Substacks and hyper-personalized TikTok accounts, and a weaker and weaker big media.
But as one of the great early internet CEOs once said, there are only two ways to go in media: bundling and unbundling. Just when you think one of those trends is in control, the pendulum starts swinging back. And there are big reasons both on the consumer and the corporate side to expect a wave of bundling.
The consumer push is obvious: The number of subscriptions you need to stay informed across entertainment and news is insane, unmanageable, and expensive. Consumers are overwhelmed by information and disoriented by complicated choices. At Semafor, part of our secret has been helping our readers navigate this chaotic, untrustworthy patchwork of paid and free content. I love many Substacks, read some of them, but can’t continue paying $200 a month combined. I’d expect an annual Substack subscription to hit in 2025 as individual publishers struggle to survive the coming wave of churning unsubscriptions.
Meanwhile, I want to watch shows on Max, Netflix, Prime, Hulu, and Apple TV+ — but it’s enraging to pay for all those subscriptions on top of YouTube TV for sports. Consumers are hitting a breaking point, and streamers are starting to respond with new bundles — but if they don’t move fast enough, they’ll find other players happy to bundle. Verizon, amazingly, offers a Netflix/Max package. If media companies can’t figure out how to be the bundlers, other layers of the ecosystem — telecoms, devices, social platforms — will.
Big corporations, meanwhile, are also driving toward consolidation. The Trump administration is more likely than Biden to wave through big media mergers — including another endlessly considered WarnerMedia sale. Elon Musk is building a new conservative/populist creator platform for the right on X. His only rival, Fox Corp. — cash rich, but desperate for a younger audience — will sweep up a generation of digital media led by The Daily Wire that needs its distribution to compete with X.
Ben Smith is editor-in-chief of Semafor.
